Uruguay
Why it will be them
In reaching this stage, Uruguay have surpassed pre-tournament expectations. They have shown through resolute defending and frightening power up front that they will pose a threat to any team. The extraordinary circumstances of their penalty victory over Ghana - in particular Abreu's confidence at chipping the deciding penalty -hinted at a team playing without fear and with a strong siege mentality. They will feel it is just written that they emulate the achievements of their distant predecessors.
Why it won't be them
Sooner or later in football, a team that is punching above it's weight will come unstuck. Whether this is through luck running out, or simply meeting an opponent better than you. Andy Murray struggles, in that his level at tennis seems to be just short of that required to ultimately win a Grand Slam event. Uruguay will find that the World Cup semi finals represents the zenith of thier abilities.
Without the villainous/heroic Luis Suarez, the Dutch can place more focus on the ever dangerous Diego Forlan. Nullifying him will blunt the Urguayan threat - and the absence of the commanding Diego Lugano in defence will have Arjen Robben and Wesley Sneijder smiling.
Holland
Why it will be them
This edition of the Oranje just win games, simple as that. The only team with a 100% record that extends all the way back to the start of qualifying, the Dutch have proved themselves like the dinosaurs in Jurassic Park who weren't supposed to be mating...they find a way. In Wesley Sneijder, excelling in his playmaker role and enjoying the finest 6 months of his career, they have one of the players of the year. A rejuvenated Arjen Robben, rested for the start of the competition, has defenders worried every time they got the ball.
Oh, and they have Dirk Kuyt.
Why it won't be them
Robin Van Persie's outburst at the manager on being substituted hinted at that most Dutch of problems - unrest within the camp. an already unsettled squad will only be becoming more fractious with the incredible pressure of not only reaching a semi final, but going into it as favourites.
Brazil were cruising until a fortunate mix-up gave Holland a lifeline - but until then the Dutch defence had looked vulnerable - something Diego Forlan will have observed with interest.
Oh, and they have Dirk Kuyt.
Germany
Why it will be them
Well, it always bloody is, isn't it?! Their World Cup record is peerless, they just know how to excel when it comes to the big show. They have been the outstanding team of the 2010 tournament, and in destroying an Argentina side with an embarassment of riches they were even more impressive than when humiliating a woeful England. 13 goals scored so far highlights a potency in attack that no-one can match; while only 2 conceded shows the organisation throughout the team that stifles any opponent, and makes for a defence that are masters of frustration. Ozil, Muller, Schweinsteiger and arguably Klose are all absolute nailed on certainties for the team of the tournament and together there seems to be no stopping them.
Why it won't be them
Despite everything above, there is just some nagging doubt that says - but are they actually that good? England offered absolutely no resistance whatsoever, and the early Thomas Muller goal completely flummoxed Argentina. In both knock-out games, their opponent was forced to attack, leaving gaps at the back which their counter-attacking ruthlessly and spectacularly exploited. Against Spain, masters of possession football, a new approach may be needed, and it is likely that they just won't have enough. The loss of Thomas Muller to suspension places a burden on the shoulders of Lukas Podolski, who may still be haunted by his Serbia horror show.
Spain
Why it will be them
David Villa. Fernando Torres. Xavi Hernandez. Andres Iniesta. Xabi Alonso.
The list above could pass off as a list of '5 of the best players in Europe right now' but is merely Spain's likely choice of attackers to start on Wednesday. They play a brand of football that no-one can touch. David Villa is utterly lethal and seems destined to claim the 2010 golden boot to complete the pair with his 2008 one already secured. Torres has not even got going yet and if/when he does, is one of the best strikers in the world. THEY DON'T EVEN PLAY CESC FABREGAS. This squad is ludicrously talented; despite wobbles and late winners they still look to have another gear or two to slot into when they need to.
Why it won't be them
'Knock knock.'
'Who's there?'
'The massive weight of national expectation and the unbearable pressure of being the favourites who have to win and win in style just like in Euro 2008.'
'Go away'
Spain have been looking towards this tournament since early July 2008, when they finally overcame the tag of perennial underachievers and claimed the crown of European Champions. Everyone has expected them to dominate in every game, blow teams away and produce moments of glorious skill and brilliance. So far, they are getting there - but no-one would say they are firing on all cylinders. Does this show a nervousness or does it in fact show that they are peaking at the right time and getting the job done thus far?
Also, arguably, football does not work like Spain want it to. The Total Football of the Dutch in the 70's went unrewarded. Brazil's dazzling play in 98 was ultimately not good enough. Newcastle's cavaliers in 96 came unstuck. The best team playing the best football with the best players rarely win the trophy - there is a reason why Brazil 1970 is so revered 40 years on.
CONCLUSION
OK, neck on the line, so far I've been spectacularly wrong so here we go. The final will be:
Holland v Spain
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