For some years there has been an established group of clubs that have formed the elite - they used to be called 'The Big Four' namely Manchester United, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool - arguably in that order more or less. It is not as cut and dried as that any more however, in my view you have a fairly well set top six - the aforementioned foursome plus Droopy Dog's Tottenham Hotspur, and richer than Richie Manchester City.
To look at the new diners at the top table as a pair would be somewhat misleading. Sure, Spurs have made it into the VIP section, but they are very much on the other side of the velvet rope to City. Having broken into the Champions League for the first time and, as it stands, ignored Carlos Tevez's wish to leave, plus the significant addition of Sergio Aguero (can't figure out how to do umlauts, sorry Kun) City have reason enough to think that they ca go one or two beter than last seasons 3rd place finish. The FA Cup win could well be a significant step in a project that you can't help feel is going to end in Manchester City winning the Premier League. It may not be this season, but there is a very real chance that it could be. It depends on two factors for me: the continuing development of something approaching a team spirit and unity amongst the expensively established men in Sky Blue; and a greater willingness on the part of Mancini to go for 3 points in every game. A pragmatism and defensive-minded approach will keep them at the right end of the table, but Ferguson's United go for the kill in every game, and look where it gets them.
Tottenham on the other hand would probably concede that they have no realistic chance of actually winning the league. A fantastic first Champions League campaign took it's toll on their league performances, but without European 'distractions' this season they can launch a more concerted attack on the Prem. Having (again, at time of writing) kept hold of the influential Luka Modric, as well as the potent attacking threats posed by Bale and Van Der Vaart, they will have another strong season, but I can't see them repeating the achievement of 2010's 4th place.
A big hurdle in the way of Tottenham comes in the form of a resurgent Liverpool. They have spent a hell of a lot of money this Summer, apparently in an attempt to shatter Spurs' record for number of superfluous Central Midfielders, set back in the days of Sean Davis, Danny Murphy, Pedro Mendes, Jermaine Jenas, Edgar Davids, and so on. Some of the purchases that Kenny Dalglish have made have been eyebrow raisers in terms of the price shelled out, but each is supported by a solid logic. Andy Carroll needs service, bring in two of the players proven to provide the most chances over the past few years (Downing and Henderson) as well as a player who caused all manner of problems with his delivery from the corner flag last season (Charlie Adam). Again, the Reds will need to prove they can forge a team out of this over-populated squad that can play together and produce the chances to bring the best out of their big Number 9. The man behind him, Luis Suarez, may well be the star performer however and will, provided he can cope with the extra attention he is going to receive, have a big season I predict.
Far from buying players (our latest wonder-kid, and the man voted worst hair in Cote D'Ivoire 4 years running, aside), Arsenal have instead adopted the maverick 'lose our best central midfielders' approach. Ballsy. In fact I think the Gunners - injuries permitting, and remember this is Arsenal we're talking about - have a strong squad even with the loss of such key performers as Cesc Fabregas and Samir Nasri. A lot will rest on the ability of Song, Ramsey, Wilshere and Walcott to stay fit and step up a level, whilst if Van Persie can get a full season he is my tip to finish top scorer. Of course we can assume though that the players mentioned above will clock up something in the region of half the season each out injured.
This leaves us with the top two, the head honchos who have ruled the roost for the last 6 years - and in United's case, much, much longer. Chelsea have ousted Carlo Ancelotti, a move I'm not entirely sure was the right one despite the mid-season slump, and gone instead for a very young manager in Andre Villas-Boas, from Porto, very much a Jose Mourinho Mk II. He has a lot of pressure on his shoulders and despite the overtures about going for longevity and stability, you have to feel that unless he makes a good start, Roman's itchy trigger finger might be claiming another victim. Fernando Torres arguably has more than just his own reputation and career at stake going into this crucial year.
Manchester United have kept up with the noisy neighbours, spending big themselves this summer too. I think the purchase of Ashley Young will be an excellent one, and he could well be a revelation playing alongside better players, in a team with more possession and control of games, and with a probable role in behind the strikers, drifting in from the right hand side. United could have the player of the year on their hands there, which would be a great boost for England going into Pukraine next summer.
The biggest loss for United however has been the retirement of the excellent since I was 10 Edwin Van Der Sar in goal. After Schmeichel retired it was pretty much only when Ferguson turned to Eddie that the problem went away. This time he has arguably gambled again, bringing in the 20 year old De Gea who has had a strong season and a half in La Liga, but has to be considered unproven at present. An exciting prospect for the future, sure, but I would argue that Ferguson might have been better served turning again to another proven and risk-free pair of hands. Provided De Gea starts well he should be fine, but any goalkeeping mistake is usually so costly that it has a far more damaging effect than any other position on the pitch where you can afford to be more patient with a noob. That aside however, for me, United are the ones to beat. Here's the final piece of the puzzle then, to make up my predicted table for this season.
I'll be in the pub tonight watching the big kick off, and I can't wait. Must stay sober enough to actually comprehend the pretty colours....
1: United - Can't see who can prevent Number 20, Young will become a superstar
2: City - Improvement on last term, and a dent in the Champions League knock-out's
3: Chelsea - Youthful AVB to last the season but ageing Chelsea not to last the pace
4: Liverpool - King Kenny getting the Reds back on the right track. Moneyball working?
5: Arsenal - Way off the pace, Arsene facing some tricky questions
6: Spurs - The usual fun and games but not quite with the elite
Top Scorer: RVP (if fit), Tevez (if here), Suarez (if neither of those two)
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