League of Extraordinary Gentlemen

"I see you stand like greyhounds in the slips, straining upon the start. The Game's Afoot..."

Something about the first day of the Premier League season - even for fans of lower league clubs or crappy Australian teams (ahem) - always comes with a swell of excitement. New kits, new players, the opening credits to Match of the Day, Jeff and the boys...every year there is so much to look forward to.

This season somehow feels as though the anticipation and exictement is even bigger than ever. Numerous factors could be behind this: the unavoidable strength of Man City's squad threatening to shake up the old guard, the uncertainty behind a revamped Liverpool, the dismal showing of England's players in South Africa; all of these are building the anticipation ahead of the 19th battle for the Premier League.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The fight for survival this year could be keenly contested, although it is likely to be about as aesthetically pleasing as watching a naked Sumo wrestling match between Jo Brand and that one who used to make You've Been Framed unwatchable. There is a fair amount of dross at the bottom of the table - the likes of Wigan and Wolves only stayed in the league last season due to there being three worse teams, many other seasons they would have dropped with their less-than-a-point-per-game total.

Clearly newcomers Blackpool, even with a host of new signings, will struggle. Hull City two years ago pulled some pants down in the early weeks, due to a blanket under-estimation of their abilities. Teams will not allow this to happen again and Blackpool will probably be up against it from day one. They may need to make the objective for this season to beat the woeful Derby County tally of 11 points, a record low. Like a Blackpool slapper's knickers, there is no way they can stay up.

Other teams in the group likely to struggle include the aforementioned Wolves and Wigan, Newcastle and perennial yo-yo's West Brom. West Ham, Birmingham, Blackburn Rovers, Sunderland and Stoke are likely to make up the bottom half of the table - although there should be a noticeable gulf in class between the bottom five and the rest.

The shock departure of Martin O'Neill this week will have potentially cataclysmic ramifications for Aston Villa. Even with O'Neill at the helm, it seemed likely that Villa would slip slightly behind the ever-improving peer group in which they have competed admirably for the last 3 years. This could be the year in which Villa slip down towards the lower reaches of the top half - although provided they can keep Ashley Young, John Carew, Gaby Agbonlahor, Richard Dunne and Brad Friedel they have the core of a team that will be too good for things to get too bad.

Fulham are another team who have undergone fairly traumatic managerial overhaul this close season. Al-Fayed stuck with the policy of employing managers with old lady hair, and Mark Hughes should continue to get a solid squad of decent players producing the quiet but effective football that keeps them out of harm's reach. The problem for Hughes however is that it even a top 10 finish - although an improvement on last year's 12th - will never be held in as high regard as the Europa League heroics of Roy Hodgson's men.

Hodgson has gone for the understandable lure of one final throw of the dice, at the biggest English club of his career. He joined Liverpool in crisis but his first few weeks could scarcely have gone better; retaining Gerrard and Torres whilst acquiring Joe Cole, not to mention the prospect of new wealthy owners, is precisely what Woy would have wanted. The wave of optimism that carries Liverpool into a tough test on the opening weekend against Arsenal could see them up challenging for the top four again.

Arsenal - what can you say? It's the same old perplexing and, presumably for Gooners, infuriating situation. A first team littered with talent...but always injured. A suspect goalkeeper. An over reliance on unproven youth, and above all else, a complete reluctance (or inability?) to spend big money. It is difficult to shake the opinion that if Wenger were to spend £30-40m on a top class goalkeeper, centre half and goalscorer Arsenal could become serious title contenders. As it is, they will definitely be thereabouts, but will probably fall away around March as is their wont. Bets are open on which Gunner gets his foot snapped off this time round by the way.

One team who have been quietly and assuredly going about their business is Everton. Putting injury problems behind them, they put on an incredible run of form throughout the second half of 2009/10, and there is no reason to think this cannot continue. Thoughts of fourth are fantasy though, there are too many stronger squads ahead of them.

Arguably one of the strongest squads in the league belongs to Sir Twitchalot himself, Harry Redknapp at Tottenham. Paradoxically, their Champions League place (if achieved) which they fought so hard for could end up ruining their chances of repeating the feat one year on. An excellent team littered with talent no doubt, but one that can compete at the level required to maintain a league challenge parallel with a Champions League campaign? Sorry Droopy, it's not going to happen.

Strong though the Spurs squad may be, there is no doubt about the strongest squad in the league. Manchester City, spending eye-watering sums of money in the process, have reached a situation where they have a surplus of quality for every position in the team. Therein lies the rub though...'Team'. Roberto Mancini has the mammoth task of moulding his expensively-assembled raft of players into a choerent, driven and effective team. Finding an optimum formation without ostracising fringe players will not be easy - never before in England has there been a situation where a club can have 10 players worth £10-20m in reserve week after week but this will be the case with City. Further to this, they still don't have the one elite level player that can make the difference. Messi, Torres, Villa, Rooney, Kaka, Xavi; they need to have one of the very best players in the world before they become certainties for the title.

The title.

Who will it be? Despite the challengers, it is surely going to come down to Man United or Chelsea. United now have the promising Javier Hernandez, while Chelsea have added the steel of Ramirez and the craft of Benayoun. The spine of both teams however remains the same, and this is the crux of why they will be up there. The last 6 titles have been won by these two teams - comprised mainly of the same core that are there now - and this is what it boils down to. They've been there, they've done it, they know what it takes. Expect both to be fighting it out to the bitter end.

Balls on the line then, see below for the predictions. Also, see my previous post for an alternate take on the football feast to come. Agree/disagree? Let me know.

Winners: Chelsea
Champs League: United (2), City (3), Arsenal (4)
Europa League: Liverpool (5), Spurs (6), Everton (7)

Mid-table obscurity: Villa (8), Fulham (9) Sunderland (10), Stoke (11), Birmingham (12)
Bottom half: Bolton (13), West Ham (14), Blackburn (15), Newcastle (16), Wolves (17)

Relegated: Wigan (18), West Brom (19), Blackpool (20 - with 18 points)