Short FUSE...?

The draw for next June's European Championships have taken place, and my instant reaction from an England fan's point of view was something of a murmur.

I'm still trying to decipher precisely what kind of a murmur it was, and what it meant.

It is not the most glamorous or exciting of groups, which as I have written about before, is what I really want from this tournament. England's WC group campaigns in 2006 and 2010 were notable only for the fact that nothing much of note occurred - I'd love us to have drawn an exciting Group of Death (more on that later) when at least you know the games are more likely to be exciting and dramatic.

France, the first team that England will face, pose the biggest threat from Pot 4 without a doubt; but they were only minutes away from the play-off's after a qualifying campaign in which they were matched almost right to the wire by Bosnia-Herzegovina. Their WC2010 ordeal was probably unmatched by another team in it's farcical ineptitude and failure to perform to capability. Laurent Blanc has since come in however and revitalised the set up, and with top quality young attacking talent such as Samir Nasri and Yann M'Vila, and a resurgent Karim Benzema up front, they are a threat. England can think back to two friendly defeats under Capello to know why they should take this Pot 4 team very seriously.

The Euro 2004 opener against the French, which England ultimately lost despite leading 1-0 on 89 mins, was a case in point that you probably want to get the best team played ASAP. England won their final two group games that year (with 7 goals and the international emergence of a young Wayne Rooney) to render the initial defeat less damaging. I would argue that, despite their coefficient, France are the strongest opponent in Group D and so England should be pleased at getting them out of the way first.

Up next is Sweden, and without doubt the murmur in this context was one of over familiarity. England have faced Sweden so many times in qualifying campaigns or tournaments over the time I have been watching them that this game holds no novelty factor, moreover with the dismal record (recent friendly win notwithstanding) these are another opponent that England would do well to prepare thoroughly for. Zlatan Ibrahimovic is clearly the outstanding talent in this team, yet has often flattered to deceive on the biggest stage. He memorably scored a ridiculous acrobatic back-heel lob against the Italians in 04; but in general his best displays over his career have been in a Milan shirt of one form or another.

The final opponent is joint host, Ukraine. Compared to Spain or Netherlands, and arguably perhaps even Poland, this would look to be clearly the plum draw from Pot One. The third-lowest ranked side going to the tournament (only Poland and Ireland have a lower coefficient) they also have a poor run of form and a lack of competitive tournament football since 2006 (and none at all before that). All of that being said however, the simple truth is that you should never underestimate the host nation. Austria and Switzerland put up more of a fight in 2008 than their results suggested (only 1 win and a draw between them) and Ukraine and Poland will surely offer some resistance to those around them. The fact that England play Ukraine last could be all the more reason to fear the host nation factor - if the locals go into this game with hopes of progression intact, Capello's men will have one hell of a fight on their hands to get through.

On reflection, I think the murmur was borne out of frustration that we didn't get a more glamorous group, but tempered with the consolation that comes with the knowledge that this group does offer a chance of escape into the quarter finals.

Fans of teams in Groups B and C might be forgiven for having slightly less optimism about their chances. Indeed, Irish fans probably felt less of a murmur more an outburst of profanity at drawing both tournament experts Italy, peerless Spain and always dangerous Croatia. Even that quartet is not the most fearsome in my opinion however.

Group B contains Netherlands, Germany, Denmark and Portugal. There is not a single fixture in that group upon which I would happily place $100 on the winner. When every game is likely to be so tight, it becomes just as difficult to state with any real assertion who will progress - one team from Netherlands, Germany or Portugal will be out at the group stage.

Finally, saving the dullest and least inspiring for last, we have the nerd convention that is Group A. Poland, Greece, Czech Republic and Russia. Eurgh. For what it is worth, I had a feeling prior to the draw that one of the hosts would be a dark horse and progress further than rankings might suggest they should - after this result I'd say Poland will be that horse. It could be that with the high stakes and pressure in the more high profile games, these ugly sisters actually end up putting on the best entertainment, but I really can't relish the prospect of a 3am start to watch Greece v Russia.

Ultimately, I don't think this draw changes a great deal for England. With a tournament of such few teams, the quality throughout is intimidating. Getting through our group is certainly a possibility, more so with FrUkSwe than if we'd drawn the Spanish or Dutch. It's not going to be easy however and I could certainly see England finishing on 3 or 5 points and exiting the tournament without losing a game a la New Zealand in 2010.

After that, I think anything beyond the quarter finals is a bonus - we would face most likely Italy or Spain, at which stage I think we will come up against a superior team. My aim is to prevent the usual excitement/hysteria from creeping in (probably easier to do from Sydney than London) and ensure that, when we do go out at the QF stage, I don't get drunk and depressed, having convinced myself that this was our year. Easier said than done.

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In the build up to the tournament, Sub Please will of course bring all the good stuff, team profiles, ones to watch, tips for triumph and disaster, etc. For now though we'll turn attentions back to the domestic scene; where City, Arsenal and Spurs continue to impress, Martin O'Neiil has a job on his hands at Sunderland, and time is ticking for the Lancashire bottom-dwellers.

Oh yeah, and Southampton are starting to wobble...