As with 2018, there are four contenders. This time, Europe and South America are excluded from contention, and the final four could not cover a wider geographical range. Next week one of USA, Japan, Qatar and Australia will be celebrating.
No messing around, straight into it - USA and Japan should not be picked.
Japan co-hosted the tournament in 2002 with South Korea, so they have to wait a bit longer to get their next turn. Until everyone has eaten, you can't go up for seconds.
USA have also been relatively recent hosts, albeit 28 years before the next time if they were to be successful. Again I think that others should be given a turn, but furthermore I think USA should be excluded on the grounds that fundamentally they just don't care that much. It is true that the 94 world cup set attendance records and made FIFA a fortune, it is true that officially more Americans bought tickets to South Africa than any other nation, and it's true that they have Universal Islands of Adventure which is hellah cool; but football will never be the main focus for Americans. The 94 world cup was supposed to kick things off in a big way, it hasn't quite done that so no point repeating the exercise.
This leaves two, both would be first-timers, and they could not be more contrasting.
Australia is the size of a continent. The host cities, chosen to align with the A-League, are mainly scattered along the East Coast - well known tourist hotspots such as Sydney, Brisbane, and the Gold Coast, as well as further South, Melbourne and Adelaide and the lone West Coast outpost of Perth. None of these cities are strangers to strangers if that makes sense, the venues and the country itself being well set up for tourism and major events.
Attempting to avoid all locally influenced bias, it is clear that Australia has a hell of a lot to offer as a draw for football fans across the globe. The fact is though, that you have to fly halfway across the globe just to make it here. Football fans will save up the money and travel the miles, no doubt, but an Australian tournament with the cost and distance involved would rule out visitors from less fortunate parts of the world.
That is probably applicable to any of the four contenders however so it's not necessarily something to hold against the Aussie bid, but now we turn to the final one, in many ways the wild card: Qatar.
The Middle East has never held a tournament like this, and quite possibly the main reason for this is simple. It gets HOT. Temperatures of the high 40s are commonplace at that time of year, and although the bid has promised air conditioned stadiums, training areas and fan fests, that has to be a factor. It surely will have an effect on the fitness and performance of the players and could easily be unbearable for visitors.
Reading through the Qatar bid though, one compelling factor for me was in the size of the country. It's tiny - around the size of Yorkshire. Due to the planned rail network, the longest time to travel between any 2 stadiums is 1 hour. That means, and brace yourself for this, it would be possible to go to all three games in a day during the group stages. O M F G. That would be one hell of a day (although based on my Cape Town form I'd get three 0-0's) and is something that has never been on offer at any of the modern World Cups.
A further factor that I think gives real support to the Qatar bid is that it is a part of the world that receives a lot of negative attention and mistrust. The first time I visited the Arab world, Abu Dhabi to be precise, I was struck by the fact that the Western image of Muslim countries is completely incorrect and can be quite damaging. It's a fascinating thing to experience such a different culture and really opened my eyes. It would be a good thing for people from around the world to see this for themselves and (start playing 'Heal the World' in your head) could do a lot to improve global relations or whatever the hell you'd call it.
In my opinion both the Aussie and Qatari bids have a lot going for them, and the prospect of either one would be something to look forward to. They offer so many positive benefits to visitors and to themselves, that for me either would be a worthy winner.
It's not for me to call it between the two, I just hope it does go to one of them - although knowing FIFA it will go to whoever makes them the most money. USA 2022? Don't bet against it.
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Being the only 'Pom' in an office watching live when Peter Siddle takes a game turning middle order hat-trick? Not fun. Just so you know.
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